Methodology
How we read the line.
Democracy on the Line produces a single daily D-Level (D5–D1) backed by six lane scores. This page explains how those numbers are produced and the rules of evidence that govern them.
D-Level definitions
- D5
D5 — Healthy
Stable democratic baseline. Free and fair elections, independent courts, working oversight, robust civil liberties, and an independent press operating without state interference.
- D4
D4 — Strain
Notable strain on one or more lanes — contested election administration, harassment of journalists, isolated political violence — but core institutions still function.
- D3
D3 — Erosion
Documented erosion across multiple lanes. Patterns rather than isolated incidents: judicial independence under pressure, voter access narrowing, oversight weakened.
- D2
D2 — Acute
Acute backsliding. Constitutional norms openly violated, courts politicized, dissent criminalized, or organized political violence going unpunished.
- D1
D1 — Crisis
Crisis-level democratic breakdown. Elections subverted, mass repression, executive defiance of binding court orders, or coordinated state-aligned violence.
The six lanes
Each lane is scored 0–100 (higher is healthier). The overall D-Level is anchored to the weakest lane — democracy fails at the weakest seam, not on the average.
elections
Elections
Voting access, administration, certification, redistricting.
institutions
Institutions
Courts, civil service, separation of powers, oversight.
civil liberties
Civil Liberties
Speech, assembly, protest, due process, minority rights.
violence
Violence
Political violence, intimidation, paramilitary activity.
information
Information
Press freedom, disinformation, government transparency.
economy
Economy
Independence of regulators, kleptocracy risk, market trust.
Scoring factors
For every event we record:
- Severity (1–5)
- Minor, notable, serious, severe, crisis. Severity 4–5 events require primary documents or multiple corroborating sources.
- Source quality
- Each event is weighted by the highest-trust source backing it. Major media alone are capped — they corroborate, they don't drive.
- Lane impact (score delta)
- A signed adjustment to the affected lane. Negative for backsliding, positive for restoration (e.g., a binding court order reversing a violation).
- Recency decay
- Recent events dominate the daily score; older events fade unless reinforced.
The daily snapshot job recomputes lane scores and maps the weakest lanes to a D-Level using fixed thresholds.
Source policy
Democracy on the Line is evidence-first. The full policy lives in SOURCE_POLICY.md; the short version:
- Primary legal records (Federal Register, court filings, agency orders, statutes) and academic / watchdog sources carry the most weight.
- High-severity events (4–5) must be backed by primary documents or multiple corroborating sources. No exceptions.
- Major media alone never trigger severe alerts. They appear as corroboration on lower-severity events and as supporting evidence once primary records exist.